Rand and oil price: how much each moves a litre of petrol
The rand and oil price drive the landed cost of fuel. At the 11 November 2026 figures, a rand 5% weaker for a whole window adds about +70c to a litre of 95.
Example: rand weaker by 5% for a whole window· change a figure to see yours
Effect on petrol 95
+70c a litre
+R35 on 50 litres, oil price unchanged
| Basic Fuel Price on 11 November 2026 | +1,406c a litre |
| Rand on that day | R16.53 to the dollar |
The whole landed cost is priced in dollars, so it moves with the rand in proportion. Levies and margins do not.
Compiled by Radif Partners · How the estimate is made
The landed cost of fuel, the Basic Fuel Price, is set in dollars on international markets and paid in rand. A move of the oil product price or of the exchange rate therefore changes it in proportion, while the levies and margins, which make up most of the rest of the price, stay fixed in cents. On 11 November 2026 the Basic Fuel Price of petrol 95 was +1,406c a litre at R16.53 to the dollar. A rand 5% weaker over a whole pricing window, with oil unchanged, would add about +70c a litre to petrol 95 and +106c to 500 ppm diesel, R35 on a 50-litre tank of 95. A 5% move in oil product prices has the same effect. In 2026 the average exchange rate behind each price ranged from R16.00 for the March change to R16.85 for January: the rand moved far less than oil, which explains most of the year’s swings.
Rand and oil price behind each change of 2026
The statements give the average exchange rate of each window. Set against the petrol 95 change, they show how rarely the rand alone explains a large move.
| Change of | Rand to the dollar | Petrol 95 change | Diesel 500 ppm change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 January 2026 | R16.8485 | -66c | -137c |
| 4 February 2026 | R16.3054 | -65c | -50c |
| 4 March 2026 | R15.9959 | +20c | +62c |
| 1 April 2026 | R16.6429 | +306c | +737c |
| 6 May 2026 | R16.6467 | +327c | +527c |
| 3 June 2026 | R16.5197 | +143c | -325c |
| 1 July 2026 | R16.3774 | -196c | -314c |
| 5 August 2026 | R16.4554 | -52c | +138c |
| 2 September 2026 | R16.2139 | +134c | +294c |
| 7 October 2026 | R16.2123 | +333c | +284c |
| 4 November 2026 | R16.5529 | -1c | -110c |
Between the March and April changes, the rand weakened from R16.00 to R16.64, about 4%. That alone would have added well under a rand to a litre; the under-recovery for April was +582c on petrol, so most of it came from international product prices.
How to read a move before the window closes
The December estimate on this site assumes the rest of the window looks like the latest day. If oil products or the rand move, the estimate moves too, and by a predictable amount: a 5% rise in the landed cost for the rest of the window would bring petrol 95 to R28.31 on 2 December 2026 instead of R27.92; a 5% fall, to R27.54. The effect is smaller than a full 5% of the BFP because part of the window is already fixed.
December with oil and the rand moving
Example: petrol 95, levy relief ending as announced, CEF data to 11 November 2026· Change the fuel or the assumptions to see another estimate
Petrol 95, estimated from 2 December 2026 (Gauteng pump price)
R28.31
-R1.93 a litre (-193c) on today’s R30.24 · coast R27.44
| Over-recovery so far (average from 30 October 2026) | +312c a litre |
| Latest day (11 November 2026) | +438c over |
| Window average projected to the close | +343c over |
| Fuel levy relief ends | +150c |
Why the levies dampen and amplify
About 61% of the price of petrol 95 is the landed cost; the rest is fixed in cents. A 10% jump in the landed cost therefore moves the pump price by about 6.1%. For diesel, where the landed cost is 76% of the wholesale price, the same jump moves the price by more. The Basic Fuel Price page explains the daily sheet; for the other side of the economy, the rand and fuel feed inflation, which the Reserve Bank weighs before each repo rate decision.