Basic Fuel Price: how over- and under-recovery set the change
The Basic Fuel Price of petrol 95 was +1,406c a litre on 11 November 2026, against +1,844c built into the pump price. Enter a window average to see the change it makes.
Example: 312c over-recovery· change a figure to see yours
Price change from the gap alone
-312c
-162c once the +150c levy relief ends
| A 50-litre tank, gap alone | -R156 |
| Same tank with the levy back | -R81 |
The statement rounds the average to the nearest full cent; the Minister can add levy, margin or transport changes on top.
Compiled by Radif Partners · How the estimate is made
The Basic Fuel Price (BFP) is what a litre of fuel would cost delivered to a South African port if bought on international markets: the spot price of refined product, freight, insurance, port charges and losses, converted to rand at the day’s exchange rate. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) computes it every business day for petrol 95 and 93, diesel 500 ppm and 50 ppm and paraffin, and compares it with the BFP built into the current price, the contribution. The difference is the day’s over-recovery (BFP below the contribution, so motorists pay too much) or under-recovery (the reverse). On 11 November 2026 petrol 95 had a BFP of +1,406c a litre against a contribution of +1,844c: an over-recovery of +438c that day and +312c on average since 30 October 2026. At the end of the window, the average, rounded to the cent, becomes the change in the next price, before any levy or margin adjustment.
Basic Fuel Price on the latest daily sheet
The table reproduces the figures of the CEF sheet of 11 November 2026 for each fuel: the BFP that day, the contribution built into the November price, the day’s gap and the window average. A positive gap is an over-recovery.
| Fuel | BFP that day | In the price | Gap that day | Window average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 95 | +1,406c | +1,844c | +438c | +312c |
| Petrol 93 | +1,385c | +1,807c | +422c | +286c |
| Diesel 500 ppm | +2,123c | +2,356c | +233c | +97c |
| Diesel 50 ppm | +2,156c | +2,430c | +274c | +134c |
| Paraffin | +2,079c | +2,448c | +369c | +174c |
From daily gaps to the monthly change
A window runs from the day after the previous one closed to a Thursday about a week before the change, about four weeks of business days. The CEF statement then states the average over- or under-recovery for each fuel, rounded to the nearest cent, and the Department turns it into the price change. The CEF statement of 30 October 2026 describes the principle: the over- or under-recovery during the prior month “will be corrected in the following month”.
Halfway through a window, part of the average is known and part is not. This site fills the remaining days with the latest daily gap, a method that came closer to the final figure than the average to date in each of the nine windows of 2026 it was tested on. For petrol 95 now, that gives +382c, rounded to +382c. The method page lists every test.
What a move in the rand does to the BFP
Example: rand weaker by 5% for a whole window· change a figure to see yours
Effect on petrol 95
+70c a litre
+R35 on 50 litres, oil price unchanged
| Basic Fuel Price on 11 November 2026 | +1,406c a litre |
| Rand on that day | R16.53 to the dollar |
The window average month by month in 2026
Each row below is a mid-window CEF sheet of 2026: the average to date on petrol 95 and the final figure the statement used. The difference between the two is what any mid-month estimate has to guess.
| Sheet of | Window from | Average to date | Final for the change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 February 2026 | 30 January 2026 | -3c | -21c |
| 12 March 2026 | 27 February 2026 | -398c | -582c |
| 13 April 2026 | 27 March 2026 | -320c | -204c |
| 12 May 2026 | 30 April 2026 | -32c | +42c |
| 12 June 2026 | 29 May 2026 | +257c | +303c |
| 13 July 2026 | 26 June 2026 | +142c | 0c |
| 12 August 2026 | 31 July 2026 | -70c | -107c |
| 14 September 2026 | 28 August 2026 | -241c | -329c |
| 12 October 2026 | 2 October 2026 | -279c | -101c |
The rand and oil page shows how the two drivers of the BFP move the price, and the slate levy page explains what happens to the gaps the industry carries in the meantime.