How the petrol price estimate is made

The estimate takes the average over- or under-recovery the Central Energy Fund (CEF) publishes for the current window, fills the business days still to come with the latest daily figure, rounds the window average to the cent as the statement does, then adds the levy changes already announced. Every figure was read in the documents on 13 November 2026.

News sites announce next month's petrol price from the same Central Energy Fund figures, often with two different numbers on the same day, and none shows the arithmetic. This site does it in the open: the average over- or under-recovery the CEF publishes each business day, projected to the close of the pricing window, rounded to the cent like the official statement, plus the levy changes already announced. Each figure carries its date, each assumption can be changed, and the same method is tested against every month of 2026.

1. The documents read

The Daily Basic Fuel Price sheets of the CEF, one PDF per business day: eleven sheets of 2026 were read, one after each price change, the latest dated 11 November 2026. The media statements of 2026, eleven of them, with their Annexure 1: price changes, exchange rate, fuel levy, Road Accident Fund levy, slate levy, the final over- or under-recovery of each window, the full price structure in Gauteng, and the price history at each change since April 2024 (32 rows). The CEF lists the monthly press release among the records available without a request in its PAIA manual; its pages carry an “All Rights Reserved” notice, so this site recalculates and cites the figures and never republishes the documents. Interest rates come from the public data service of the South African Reserve Bank, read on 13 November 2026, and the meeting dates from its Monetary Policy Committee page.

2. The calculation

For each fuel: projected gap = (average to date × days so far + latest daily gap × days to come) ÷ days in the window. On 11 November 2026 the window had run 9 business days since 30 October 2026; it is assumed to close on 26 November 2026, a Thursday six days before the change, as in eight of the nine windows of 2026, which gives 20 days. For petrol 95: (+312c × 9 + +438c × 11) ÷ 20 = +382c, rounded to +382c. An over-recovery lowers the price by that amount; then the levy relief ending adds +150c on petrol and +300c on diesel. Result for 95: -232c, from R30.24 to R27.92 in Gauteng.

The coastal price applies the Gauteng to coast gap of the latest price history (87c on petrol). Diesel and paraffin are wholesale prices. The paraffin shop maximum moves by 1.33 times the wholesale change, the average ratio of the 2026 statements. LPG is not estimated: no daily figure is published for it. The slate levy is kept unchanged unless you change it, because it depends on a balance published only with the statement.

3. Track record on the windows of 2026

For each window of 2026 with a CEF sheet near its middle, both ways of carrying the window forward were compared with the final figure of the statement. Method B, used on this site, missed by +40c on average on petrol 95, against +98c for method A; on 500 ppm diesel, +66c against +154c.

4. Interest rate calculations

Instalments use equal monthly payments at the annual rate divided by 12, with the rate unchanged over the term; fees, insurance and bond registration costs are left out. Scenarios of rate moves are illustrations, not forecasts of the committee’s decisions.

5. Limits

• An estimate, not the official price: the Department’s statement a few days before each change gives the figures that apply.
• The figures are those of the documents read on 13 November 2026; nothing on the site updates by itself, and each page shows the date of its data.
• A large move in oil prices or the rand before the window closes changes the result; the calculator lets you test one.
• Coastal prices of petrol 93 and 50 ppm diesel are not published; the site shows Gauteng only for them.
• Pump prices of diesel and paraffin depend on each station’s margin.

Corrections: contact page.